Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. ( Ecology Letters , 10 , 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.     

Population size estimation in a two-list surveillance system with a discrete covariate

Summary .   Capture–recapture methods are widely adopted to estimate sizes of populations of public health interest using information from surveillance systems. For a two-list surveillance system with a discrete covariate, a population is divided into several subpopulations. A unified framework is proposed in which the logits of presence probabilities are decomposed into case effects and list effects. The estimators for the whole population and subpopulation sizes, their adjusted versions, and asymptotic standard errors admit closed-form expressions. Asymptotic and bootstrap individual and simultaneous confidence intervals are easily constructed. Conditional likelihood ratio tests are used to select one from three possible models. Real examples are investigated.     

Evaluation of aneugenic effects of bisphenol A in somatic and germ cells of the mouse

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a synthetic monomer widely used to polymerize polycarbonate plastics and resins. It is shown in vitro to interfere with microtubules, producing aberations in mitotic and meiotic spindles. An increase of meiotic abnormalities in untreated female mice from an experimental colony was temporally correlated with the accidental release of BPA from polycarbonate cages and bottles damaged by inadvertent treatment with harsh alkaline detergents [P.A. Hunt, K.E. Koehler, M. Susiarjo, C.A. Hodges, A. Ilagan, R.C. Voigt, S. Thomas, B.F. Thomas, T.J. Hassold, Bisphenol A exposure causes meiotic aneuploidy in the female mouse, Curr. Biol. 13 (2003) 546-553]. In the present study, potential aneugenic effects of BPA on mouse male and female germ cells and bone marrow cells have been evaluated after acute, sub-chronic or chronic in vivo exposure. Female mice were orally treated with a single BPA dose, with 7 daily administrations or exposed for 7 weeks to BPA in drinking water. No significant induction of hyperploidy or polyploidy was observed in oocytes and zygotes at any treatment condition. The only detectable effect was a significant increase of metaphase II oocytes with prematurely separated chromatids after chronic exposure; this effect, however, had no irreversible consequence upon the fidelity of chromosome segregation during the second meiotic division, as demonstrated by the normal chromosome constitution of zygotes under the same exposure condition. With male mice, no delay of meiotic divisions was found after six daily oral doses of BPA with the BrdU assay. Similarly, no induction of hyperploidy and polyploidy was shown in epydidimal sperm hybrized with probes for chromosomes 8, X and Y, 22 days after six daily oral BPA doses. Finally, two daily oral BPA doses did not induce any increase of micronucleus frequencies in polychromatic erythrocytes of mouse bone marrow. In conclusion, our results do not add evidence to the suspected aneugenic activity of BPA and suggest that other factors or co-factors should be considered to explain the unexpected burst of meiotic abnormalities previously attributed to accidental BPA exposure.     

What best explains vigilance in elk: characteristics of prey, predators, or the environment?

We quantified the vigilance levels of elk (Cervus elaphus) preyedon by wolves (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park, betweenJanuary and May in 2005 and 2006, and used Akaike's informationcriterion to compare a set of 38 regression models for vigilancelevels. These models combined up to 9 predictor variables of3 types: characteristics of the prey group (herd size and composition),characteristics of the predator (wolf pack size, distance away,and the presence/absence of a kill), and characteristics ofthe local environment (distance to woodland edges, snow depth,and snow cover). The set of models spanned a range of complexityfrom simple univariate models to complex combinations with upto 3 variables of each type. Complex models incorporating thecharacteristics of the wolf pack, the structure of the elk herd,and the environmental conditions had higher information contentthan simple models. Although univariate models of vigilancedetect significant relationships, they have low informationcontent relative to multivariate models. These results showthat elk assesses factors of several types when assessing riskand deciding how much time to allocate to vigilance. In particular,we found that all well-supported models of vigilance includedseveral "prey" variables and several "predator" variables. Thisresult highlights the need to consider information about predatorswhen trying to explain variation in vigilance levels in prey.     

A survey of unresolved problems in life cycle assessment

Background, aims, and scope  Life cycle assessment (LCA) stands as the pre-eminent tool for estimating environmental effects caused by products and processes from ‘cradle to grave’ or ‘cradle to cradle.’ It exists in multiple forms, claims a growing list of practitioners, and remains a focus of continuing research. Despite its popularity and codification by organizations such as the International Organization for Standards and the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, life cycle assessment is a tool in need of improvement. Multiple authors have written about its individual problems, but a unified treatment of the subject is lacking. The following literature survey gathers and explains issues, problems and problematic decisions currently limiting LCA’s goal and scope definition and life cycle inventory phases. Main features  The review identifies 15 major problem areas and organizes them by the LCA phases in which each appears. This part of the review focuses on the first 7 of these problems occurring during the goal and scope definition and life cycle inventory phases. It is meant as a concise summary for practitioners interested in methodological limitations which might degrade the accuracy of their assessments. For new researchers, it provides an overview of pertinent problem areas toward which they might wish to direct their research efforts. Results and discussion  Multiple problems occur in each of LCA’s four phases and reduce the accuracy of this tool. Considering problem severity and the adequacy of current solutions, six of the 15 discussed problems are of paramount importance. In LCA’s first two phases, functional unit definition, boundary selection, and allocation are critical problems requiring particular attention. Conclusions and recommendations  Problems encountered during goal and scope definition arise from decisions about inclusion and exclusion while those in inventory analysis involve flows and transformations. Foundational decisions about the basis of comparison (functional unit), bounds of the study, and physical relationships between included processes largely dictate the representativeness and, therefore, the value of an LCA. It is for this reason that problems in functional unit definition, boundary selection, and allocation are the most critical examined in the first part of this review.

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the 'art of the possible', which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for 'good practice' for the development and the use of predictive models.     

The relationship between lay and technical views of Escherichia coli O157 risk

Here, we bring together and contrast lay (accessible primarily through social science methodologies) and technical (via risk assessment and epidemiological techniques) views of the risk associated with the Escherichia coli O157 pathogen using two case study areas in the Grampian region of Scotland, and North Wales. Epidemiological risk factors of contact with farm animals, visiting farms or farm fields and having a private water supply were associated with postcode districts of higher than average disease incidence in the human population. However, this was not the case for the epidemiological risk factor of consumption of beef burgers, which was independent of disease incidence in the postcode district of residence. The proportion of the population expressing a high knowledge of E. coli O157 was greatest in high-incidence disease districts compared with low-incidence areas (17% cf. 7%). This supports the hypothesis that in high-disease-incidence areas, residents are regularly exposed to information about the disease through local cases, the media, local social networks, etc. or perhaps that individuals are more likely to be motivated to find out about it. However, no statistically significant difference was found between high- and low-incidence postcode districts in terms of the proportion of the population expressing a high likelihood of personal risk of infection (10% cf. 14%), giving a counterintuitive difference between the technical (epidemiological and quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA)) and the lay assessment of E. coli O157 risk. This suggests that lay evaluations of E. coli O157 risk reflect intuitive and experience-based estimates of the risk rather than probabilistic estimates. A generally strong correspondence was found in terms of the rank order given to potential infection pathways, with environment and foodborne infection routes dominating when comparing public understanding with technical modelling results. Two general conclusions follow from the work. First, that integrative research incorporating both lay and technical views of risk is required in order that informed decisions can be made to handle or treat the risk by the groups concerned (e.g. the public, policy makers/risk managers, etc.). Second, when communicating risk, for example, through education programmes, it is important that this process is two-way with risk managers (e.g. including Food Standards Agency officials and communications team, public health infection control and environmental health officers) both sharing information with the public and stakeholder groups, as well as incorporating public knowledge, values and context (e.g. geographical location) into risk-management decisions.     

Colonization of storm gaps by the spruce bark beetle: influence of gap and landscape characteristics

• 1 After storm disturbances, there is a risk for degradation of the quality of fallen trees, and for subsequent tree mortality caused by the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Models assessing the risk for bark beetle colonization of different kinds of storm gaps would be a valuable tool for management decisions.
• 2 The present study aimed to determine which gap and landscape characteristics are correlated with the probability of colonization of wind‐felled Norway spruce trees by I. typographus.
• 3 The study included 36 storm gaps, varying in size from three to 1168 wind‐felled spruces, created by the storm Gudrun in southern Sweden in January 2005.
• 4 In the first summer, on average, 5% of the wind‐felled spruces were colonized by I. typographus. The percentage of colonized wind‐felled trees per gap was negatively correlated with the total area of storm gaps within 2000 m in the surrounding forest landscape.
• 5 In the second summer, the proportion of colonized trees increased to 50%. Both gap (mean diameter of wind‐felled trees and basal area of living spruce trees) and landscape variables (amount of spruce forest) were significantly correlated with colonization percentage and explained almost 50% of the variation between gaps.
• 6 There was no relationship between gap area and colonization percentage. This implies that landscapes with many large storm gaps, where logging resources will be most effectively used, should be salvaged first.

     

Carnivores (Mammalia: Carnivora) in South China: a status review with notes on the commercial trade

• 1 Evidence from the literature, interviews, market surveys, general rapid field surveys and camera trapping was reviewed to infer the regional status of 33 recorded carnivores in South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Hong Kong and Macau).
• 2 The carnivore fauna in South China is among the most depleted for any continental area in the world.
• 3 The tiger Panthera tigris, leopard Panthera pardus, grey wolf Canis lupus and binturong Arctictis binturong are probably extirpated.
• 4 The dhole Cuon alpinus, Asiatic golden cat Catopuma temmincki and clouded leopard Neofelis nebulosa are at great risk of regional extirpation, as are the more ecologically adaptable red fox Vulpes vulpes, raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides, Asian badger Meles leucurus, Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, Oriental small‐clawed otter Aonyx cinereus and large Indian civet Viverra zibetha.
• 5 Though more widely reported, the Asiatic black bear Ursus thibetanus, yellow‐throated marten Martes flavigula, hog badger Arctonyx collaris and Siberian weasel Mustela sibirica are at regional risk.
• 6 The status of the Burmese ferret‐badger Melogale personata, stripe‐backed weasel Mustela strigidorsa, smooth‐coated otter Lutrogale perspicillata, large‐spotted civet Viverra megaspila and Owston's palm civet Chrotogale owstoni is uncertain due to inadequate information.
• 7 Five carnivore species – the Chinese ferret‐badger Melogale moschata, masked palm civet Paguma larvata, yellow‐bellied weasel Mustela kathiah, small Indian civet Viverricula indica and leopard cat Prionailurus bengalensis– are relatively secure (though not common) in the region, along with the Asian palm civet Paradoxurus hermaphroditus and the Javan mongoose Herpestes javanicus in some areas, while the spotted linsang Prionodon pardicolor and crab‐eating mongoose Herpestes urva may have been under‐reported.
• 8 The main threats have been habitat destruction and unsustainable exploitation. Only in Hong Kong, where enforcement of protection legislation has been stronger, are the surviving carnivore species easily encountered.
• 9 Improved enforcement and monitoring are essential to retaining the remainder of South China's carnivores. Support could be boosted by conservation education and better research.

     

Understanding the expanding role of primary care physicians (PCPs) to primary psychiatric care physicians (PPCPs): enhancing the assessment and treatment of psychiatric conditions

Aim In the current healthcare system primary care physicians (PCPs) have, in effect, become the primary psychiatric care physicians (PPCPs) for many of their patients. Being the PPCP in an already busy and stressful medical industry presents additional time management and treatment challenges to successfully manage patients' medical and psychiatric needs. The aim of the study was to ascertain PCPs' psychiatric assessment and treatment practices and to determine the extent to which PCPs have a need for using a structured psychiatric assessment tool.Method We sent 300 PCPs a survey to examine their psychiatric assessment and treatment practices. A one-page questionnaire was used to inquire about PCPs' psychiatric care practice habits including types of conditions treated, psychiatric medications prescribed, assessment methods used, interest in using a structured assessment tool and referral sources used. Sixty-eight usable surveys (23%) were returned.Results PCPs identify approximately one-third of their patients as mental health patients. They are treating a wide range of psychiatric conditions and prescribing a variety of psychiatric medications. The vast majority are using traditional clinical interviewing as their primary method of psychiatric assessment. However, the majority were willing to use a structured psychiatric assessment tool.Conclusion PCPs are serving a useful role in providing psychiatric treatment to many of their patients. Using a more structured psychiatric assessment method in practice could ultimately strengthen the assessment and treatment of psychiatric conditions in primary care settings.